support group cohesiveness
outweighs their willingness to think and speak
honestly.
Groupthink is an understandable
phenomenon. After all, who wants to be shunned by peers
and colleagues? And there’s safety in numbers; if
the boss is starting a new initiative and I think the
idea is loony as hell, but nobody seems to be
objecting, why raise doubts? If the idea somehow
succeeds, then nobody will accuse me of having opposed
this obviously “brilliant” concept. And if
it ends up crashing and burning, well, nobody else saw
it coming, did they?
The problem, of course, is that
what appears to be safe for the individual (namely, to
avoid disagreeing with the group and the boss) is
potentially lethal for the organization. It was lethal
to 114 Cuban expatriots at the Bay of Pigs; it was
lethal to over 58,000 American troops in Vietnam (and
approximately 1.5 million Vietnamese); and it is
proving lethal in our Iraqi policy today. That was the
conclusion of the bipartisan Senate Intelligence
Committee in 2004, when it studied the intelligence
community’s pre war assessments of Iraq’s
weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The Senate committee
decided that groupthink was alive and at work among the
intelligence agencies that were advising the White
House on the probability that Iraq had large stockpiles
of WMD.
Groupthink has affected our Iraq
policy in other ways. One example (among many): in
February, 2003, weeks before the Iraqi invasion, senior
Army General Eric Shinseki told a Senate committee it
would require several hundred thousand troops to manage
post war Iraq. He was publicly ridiculed by Pentagon civilian
leaders and his career was effectively ended.
CAUSES OF GROUPTHINK
Why is it that senior leaders
allow a culture of groupthink to develop around them,
given the obvious costs and risks? There are many
reasons, including:
Leader’s personal
insecurity. It’s
reassuring to hear others echo your own words when you aren’t
sure of yourself. Such leaders sometimes surround
themselves with “yes men/
women.”
Leaders too convinced of their own brilliance. This is